ga_incidence() describes counts of an event over each observation
interval (new infections, new deaths, new hospital admissions);
ga_prevalence() describes counts of a compartment at the end of each
interval. Reported counts are modelled as a binomial thinning of the
latent count with probability prob plus Gaussian measurement error with
variance noise times the latent count, approximated by a Gaussian with
the same mean and variance.
